Let there be no doubt, Muammar Gaddafi must go, he is an unpredictable scoundrel who for decades has tyrannised Libya and killed innocent people at home and abroad. Any one with only a superficial comprehension of his megalomaniac leadership style will know that he was personally responsible for the downing of the Pan Am flight 103 over Lockerbie Scotland in December 1988.
The question therefore is not whether the UN Resolution to enforce a No - Fly Zone over Libya, is morally and legally justified or whether supporting democracy in Libya or elsewhere in the region is the right thing to do.
The question closer to the point is whether the UN and especially the NATO member states that have pressed for - and are now in charge of the military action - have a long term strategy in place to ensure lasting peace and democratic rule for all in the Middle East.
There is a thin line between a short term military success and long term political mayhem. The Arab League’s support for military intervention in Libya is meaningless considering the League’s track record. To belief that its members support of the UN resolution is a guarantor for justice and democracy in the region is as foolishly naive as believing in Santa Claus. During its sixty six years existence it has never resolved any important issue mainly because it has hardly ever spoken with one voice and if political expediency made it worthwhile individual members would simply go their own way and ignore the agreements solemnly signed.
Consider further that, of the twenty two member states, the people of two; Tunisia and Egypt, have only weeks ago liberated themselves from their own long time dictators and are struggling to rebuild their civil societies. It will take time for these two nations to find themselves and to be able to playing a meaningful role in the region.
Nine of the twenty two; Yemen, Bahrain, Syria, Sudan, Lebanon, Jordan, Mauritania, Algeria and Morocco are embroiled in more or less severe domestic conflicts of their own and many of their people have the same fate in mind for their leaders as have the Libyans for Gaddafi. Their present day governments would, naturally, support almost anything to buy time in order to avoid their own end game.
Another seven members; Iraq, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Oman, and Qatar are considered stooges of the West and are lacking credibility with the Arab people at large.
Three of the remaining four; Somalia, Djibouti and the Comoros are unlikely to make a meaningful contribution in any thing other than lining the pockets of a selected few.
Remains Palestine; a Nation without a land and without a coherent leadership, divided into economically unviable territories, a pawn in the game between Iran, Israel and the West.
The pain of the Palestinian people lasting for more than sixty years, broken promises and a dividing wall, similar to the one in Germany during the cold war, have become a unifying bond between Muslims around the world regardless of ethnic origin, language or political affiliation.
And - the “liberated” people of the Arab world will one day soon want to see their Palestinian brothers having their rights restored, their frontiers secured and their leaders elected by Palestinians. Their demand for accountable governance will put pressure on their new leaders to search for an equitable solution for Palestine. As a consequence the pre-revolution cosy relationship between Middle Eastern and Western Capitals, driven by “mutual generosity”, is unlikely to resume.
Any one with good intentions should bear this in mind, pay attention to the symbiotic relationship between Palestine and the rest of greater “Arabia” and have a workable plan for a lasting solution to the challenges in the conflict between Israel and Palestine before meddling in Arab regional affairs. Without it the fall out of collateral damage from an escalating conflict started with good intentions may come to haunt the “well meaning” Statesmen in the western hemisphere for years in the future.
“Seven pillars of Wisdom” written in the early 20th century by T. E. Lawrence would be a good starting point for a clearer understanding of Middle Eastern dynamics and its painful history. For David Cameron and Nicolas Sarkozy it should become compulsory reading before it is too late.
J.S.
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